Federal prosecutors have charged a Google software engineer with using confidential company data to place profitable bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket, marking one of the highest profile criminal cases yet tied to the rapidly expanding online prediction industry.
Authorities say Michele Spagnuolo, a 36 year old Italian citizen living in Switzerland, used internal Google search trend information to earn roughly $1.2 million through a series of wagers tied to internet search rankings. Prosecutors unsealed the indictment Wednesday, charging him with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering.
According to federal investigators, Spagnuolo accessed nonpublic Google data that tracked search activity before the information became available to the public. Prosecutors allege he used that knowledge to place large bets on Polymarket under the username AlphaRaccoon.
The wagers focused on markets predicting the most searched public figures of 2025. Court documents allege that Spagnuolo placed nearly $1 million betting that Bianca Censori, the wife of rapper Kanye West, would not become the year’s most searched person online. He also reportedly wagered hundreds of thousands of dollars against Pope Leo XIV reaching the top spot and made additional bets tied to the musician D4vd, who prosecutors said was viewed by most traders as having virtually no chance of leading the rankings.
In total, prosecutors allege Spagnuolo wagered approximately $2.7 million across 25 separate prediction markets and later removed the AlphaRaccoon identity from his account after cashing out the profits through cryptocurrency transfers.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed a civil enforcement action against him. Spagnuolo has not publicly commented on the allegations.
Google confirmed that it cooperated with investigators and said the employee has been placed on leave. The company stated that while the internal marketing tools used by Spagnuolo were broadly accessible to employees, using confidential corporate data for personal financial gain violated company policy.
Polymarket also emphasized its cooperation with federal investigators. The company’s chief legal officer said the platform’s cryptocurrency based trading system creates a transparent record of transactions, allowing investigators to trace suspicious activity more easily.
The case highlights growing scrutiny surrounding prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which have surged in popularity during President Donald Trump’s second term. The platforms allow users to place financial bets on everything from elections and economic events to celebrity news and corporate announcements.
Federal authorities have increasingly focused on whether traders are exploiting confidential information in ways similar to insider trading in traditional financial markets. Last month, prosecutors charged a U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant with using classified intelligence to make more than $400,000 betting on geopolitical events through Polymarket.
The broader legal environment surrounding prediction markets remains unsettled. State regulators and federal agencies continue battling over whether the platforms should be regulated as gambling operations or as commodities based financial exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Although Polymarket’s main platform is officially unavailable to U.S. users following a 2022 settlement with federal regulators, the company remains deeply connected to American politics and business. Its founder, Shayne Coplan, was previously investigated by federal authorities before that inquiry was later dropped by the Trump administration.
